Senior Expert – Climate Change Mitigation Modelling for Tanzania's LT-LEDS

About the role

UNEP is seeking a senior expert to lead climate change mitigation modelling for Tanzania’s Long‑Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT‑LEDS). The consultant will design, implement and deliver a fully calibrated set of low‑emission scenarios that will become the quantitative backbone of the national strategy.

Key responsibilities

• Develop and validate the modelling methodology, architecture and data requirements for the LT‑LEDS, selecting appropriate tools (e.g., LEAP, TIMES, RDM, InVEST, CGE or system‑dynamics models).
• Produce sector‑specific net‑zero‑by‑2050 pathways covering energy, transport, AFOLU, industry, waste, blue economy and human settlements, including cost‑benefit, macro‑economic and just‑transition analyses.
• Collaborate closely with the Vice‑President’s Office – Division of Environment, the National Carbon Monitoring Centre, sector ministries and the LT‑LEDS lead consortium to ensure modelling outputs feed directly into policy and investment planning.
• Assess adaptation, biodiversity, investment needs, nature‑positive investments and Article 6 carbon‑market opportunities linked to each pathway.
• Deliver an inception report, methodology documentation and final scenario annexes integrated into the LT‑LEDS strategy document.

Required profile

• Proven senior‑level experience in climate mitigation modelling and scenario development for national low‑emission strategies.
• Demonstrated ability to work with government agencies and multi‑disciplinary teams in a developing‑country context.

Required skills

• Proficiency with energy‑system and integrated assessment tools such as LEAP, TIMES, RDM and InVEST.
• Experience with macro‑economic modelling approaches (CGE or system dynamics).
• Strong expertise in GHG accounting, scenario analysis and cost‑benefit evaluation.